Actuarial valuation of the Québec Pension Plan as at 31 December 2012

The actuarial valuation provides an indication of the Québec Pension Plan's financial health. It informs the government, contributors and beneficiaries of the Plan's financial progress, thereby making it possible to revise, if necessary, the plan's funding or some of its provisions. The Régie des rentes du Québec has prepared its most recent actuarial valuation, based on the data available as at 31 December 2012.

Why prepare an actuarial valuation?

Under the Act respecting the Québec Pension Plan, since 1998, an actuarial valuation of the Plan must be carried out at least once every 3 years. The valuation is made up of the following elements:

• an estimate of the contribution rate required to ensure stable funding of the Plan over the long term, as defined in the Act;
• a projection of the revenue (contributions and investment income) and expenditures (benefits and administration costs) over a 50-year period;
• long-term changes in the reserve.

Facts about the actuarial valuation

• The 2012 actuarial valuation shows that the Québec Pension Plan remains a pension plan that is viable for all generations.
• The rate of return shown below is the rate of return, which, without taking into account administration fees, balances the commuted values of contributions and the value of the benefits. In other words, the annual rate of return on a member's contributions until his or her death allows all the benefits to which he or she is entitled under the Plan to be paid. Although the rate of return was higher for contributions from older members, the rate of return should also be positive for contributions from all generations.

Results of the actuarial valuation

• The actuarial valuation clearly shows that the Plan is financially healthy and that the Act to amend the Act respecting the Québec Pension Plan and other legislative provisions  implemented by the government in 2011 to improve the financial situation have been effective. A schedule of increases in the contribution rate was adopted by the government (from 9,90% in 2011 to 10,80% in 2017). After 2017, if necessary, an automatic contribution rate adjustment mechanism will make up any difference between the statutory rate and the rate required to stabilize Plan funding.
• The actuarial valuation also shows that the automatic contribution rate adjustment mechanism could take effect as of 2018. According to the results of the valuation, the contribution rate that will provide funding stability as of 2018 is 11,02%, which is a 0,22% increase compared with the rate of 10,80% that will be in effect in 2017.
• The next actuarial valuation, as at 31 December 2015, will invalidate or confirm the results. The automatic contribution rate adjustment mechanism will be based on that valuation.

Highlights of the valuation

Population

• Québec's population will increase from 8,1 million in 2012 to 9,6 million in 2062.
• Life expectancy for men 65 years of age will rise from 19,0 years in 2013 to 23,0 years in 2062. For women, it will rise from 21,9 to 25,3 years.

Contributions

• The number of contributors will increase from 4,0 million in 2013 to 4,6 million in 2062.
• Totale contributions will rise from 12,3 billion $ in 2013 to 73,6 billion $ in 2062 (in constant dollars).

Benefits

• The number of retirement pension beneficiaries (1,6 million in 2013) will increase by 60% by 2030.
• In 2013, there are 2,6 contributors for each retirement pension beneficiary. As of 2021, there will be fewer than 2 contributors for each beneficiary.
• Total benefits, including survivors' and disability benefits, will rise from 11,8 billion $ in 2013 to 84,0 billion $ in 2062 (in constant dollars).

Reserve

• The Plan's reserve as at 31 December 2012 is 39,3 billion $, which is 3,3 times the cash outflow for 2013.

Changes

• Contributions are greater than cash outflows until 2018, which will increase the reserve.
• From 2019 to 2062, investment income will be used to bridge the gap between contributions and cash outflows.
• By using the increase in contribution rate chart, the ratio of the reserve on the cash outflows for the following year at the end of the projection period is 2,2.

Changes in the ratio of the reserve at the end of one year to the cash outflows at the end of the following year

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